SARS-CoV-2 - COVID-19 = common cold proof (if we accept that viruses exist)
I cannot believe someone is still falling for this pandemic story. It is already the 143rd day and there are a lot of researches. Even if I believe everything they officially say, it just doesn’t add up.
I calculated the death rate of this moronavirus.
According to my calculations using official data, there are 1 billion people infected with this virus.
The death rate is 0.008%
It is way below seasonal flu even when they count every accident victim and every other death as coronavirus death.
If you find any errors in my calculation, just let me know.
The very first case
was recorded on the 17th of November 2019.
The first restriction
was on the 23nd of January, 2020 when
“Wuhan says it will "temporarily" close its airport and railway stations for departing passengers following news that the death toll from the Wuhan Coronavirus has risen to 17. Chinese authorities confirm at least 547 cases in the mainland.
There are more very recent researches investigating how quickly SARS-CoV-2 spread in China in the beginning when there
were no restrictions.
According to this Fact sheet
from 1st of April, 2020:
“The basic reproductive number, the so-called R0, of the virus is thought to be between 2-4 meaning that in a fully susceptible population, one infected individual will on average infect 2-4 others in the absence of control measures.
According to a research
from the 4th of March, 2020:
“we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days. Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days.
The first 66 days nothing stopped the virus so, every 4.6 days 3 times more people got the virus.
66/4.6 = 14.34 I round it to 14.
This means on the 22nd of January, 2020. There were 7 million people who already got the virus.
- Very first day = 1 person
- 1st 4.6 days 3 people, cumulative 4 people
- 2nd 4.6 days 3^2 = 9 people, cumulative 13 people
- 14th 4.6 days 3^14 = 4,782,969 people, cumulative 7,174,453 people
According to this research of CDC
from the 7th of April, 2020:
“When infected persons are isolated after 5 days of symptoms (a probable scenario for the early outbreak in Wuhan, where the public was not aware of the virus and few interventions were implemented), the serial interval is estimated to be 8 days. Thus, these results suggest a serial interval of 7–8 days. … we estimated that the median of estimated R0 is 5.7. The estimated R0 can be lower if the serial interval is shorter.
So, let’s calculate with these numbers:
During the first 66 days, every 7.5 days 5.7 times more people got the virus.
66/7.5 = 8.8 I round it up to 9
This means on the 22nd of January, 2020. There were almost 8 million people who already got the virus.
- Very first day = 1 person
- 1st 7.5 days 5.7 people, cumulative 6.7 people
- 2nd 7.5 days 5.7^2 = 32.49 people, cumulative 39.19 people
- 9th 7.5 days 5.7^9 = 6,351,462 people, cumulative 7.702.836 people
We get from 2 completely different researches almost the same numbers.
We can safely say that just before any restrictions the majority of people of Wuhan was already infected.
China has the fastest growing passenger air market, the number of passengers in Wuhan Airport are 20 million per year. The High-Speed Bullet trains go to every major city in some hours. The Railway traffic of Wuhan is 120 million per year. So, in those 66 days, 25 million people traveled to and from Wuhan.
This means millions of people travelled to domestic and international destination before any lockdown.
The average duration from infection to death is 14 days, they say. So, we can be pretty sure, that everybody who has been infected on the 22nd of January, 2020 has already died on the 5th of February, 2020.
On the 5th of February, 2020 „Coronavirus outbreak death toll climbs to 564 globally
So, what is the death rate of this totally uncontrolled virus?
564/7 million * 100 = 0.008%
From this we can calculate how many people got the virus worldwide till now.
As of the 8th of April, 2020, there are 87,469 total deaths.
So, 87,469 / 0.008% = 1,093,362,500, so just about 1 billion people are infected as of today.
As every respectable health organization says, „The Covid-19 coronavirus is not the flu
Of course not, flu causes a lot of deaths every year, even if we count every motor accident death, every pneumonia as SARS-CoV-2 death, then we are at a death rate of 0.008%
Seasonal flu is way more than 10 times deadlier.
Even if we say that this virus existed, it is just a common cold virus.